President Trump’s First Year

This is being written at the end of President Trump’s first year in office.  I didn’t vote for the man, but after he won the election, I said that I wanted to let him have his chance.  It’s the American way.  Win or lose, accept the outcome and move ahead.  By way of full disclosure, I wasn’t a big fan of Hillary Clinton’s either, but eventually voted for her as the lesser of the two available evils.  In the primaries, I voted for Bernie Sanders.  I didn’t think he stood a chance and he certainly didn’t look presidential but his ideals were more closely aligned with mine.  I thought Hillary was a qualified politician but not the right candidate for the times.  She had too much history and political baggage to be the first one to cross the American presidential gender barrier. 

Trump at Disneyworld's Hall of Presidents

For the 2020 presidential elections, I can only hope we don’t lose the meaning of the year and that we use our 20/20 hindsight to present the people with a better selection of candidates on both sides of the aisle.  Please know that I don’t mean Oprah Winfrey either.  She is a seemingly wonderful person but we don’t need another television personality to run the business of governing this country.  It is a sad realization that the job of president is one for a professional politician or at least someone with a clear understanding of how this country operates.

Now we come to the recap of President Trump’s first year.  No, this isn’t going to be another liberal bashing of the president.  What would be the point?  Everybody has their own opinion by now and words from me aren’t going to change anybody’s mind.  The president’s base of support will remain somewhere in the mid 30’s unless he commits a “red-state mortal sin” like bad-mouthing Richard Petty, Waylon Jennings, or Dale Earnhardt.  Actually, I would doubt he even knows who these people are.  No, Richard Petty was not Tom Petty’s dad.

Richard Petty

Tom Petty

Most recently, the news media is “all-a-Twitter” (pun intended) questioning the president’s racism.  I found Martin Luther King’s nephew, Isaac Newton Farris’ statement that Trump is not a racist “in the traditional sense,” enlightening.  The qualifier was insightful.  It’s easy to see that both beauty and racism are in the eye of the beholder.  Just as it is easy to point to Angelina Jolie or Halle Berry and call them beautiful, you can’t deny the racism of the KKK or the Arian Nation.  It’s when you get beyond the Klansmen and skinheads where racism starts to be a matter of degree.  It would seem that President Trump is just your garden variety racist and xenophobe.  He doesn’t like what he doesn’t understand and he doesn’t understand much.  His lifetime experiences have been in the rarefied atmosphere inhabited by extremely wealthy white people or extremely white wealthy people.  He is familiar with each of these groups.  To paraphrase the president, “There are some very good people on both sides.”

Racism, A Matter of Degree Beyond the Obvious 

Another question being bandied about involves President Trump’s mental stability.  This is only based on observations of his behavior.  I know this will offend some but the man lies.  Like a lot.  He could listen to an audio tape or watch video of himself saying one thing and he will be completely comfortable claiming that he never said or did whatever had been recorded.  The man could argue against gravity.  Who says it’s a law?  I didn’t vote for it.  He would feel perfectly justified to rescind the law of gravity with an executive order.  He reminds me of a great reggae pop song by Shaggy titled “It Wasn’t Me.”  In the song, the narrator is caught by his girlfriend with the next-door neighbor “in flagrante delicto.”  This happens several times in various rooms and positions but the culprit constantly claims, “It wasn’t me.”

Song:  Shaggy, It Wasn't Me

President Obama promised CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN.  Everyone was dissatisfied with the status quo so change seemed like a worthy ideal.  The American public saw that the existing corrupt system of ours wasn’t accomplishing much.  They wanted CHANGE.  President Obama spent eight years in office and, truth be told, not much changed.  While many things were accomplished, it was done the old-fashioned way with politics as usual.  By 2016, the nation still wanted change.  With a democratic president and a republican controlled House and Senate, meaningful legislation was bogged down in the quagmire of party politics.

Trump Cabinet Firings

Along came Trump who promised to “Drain the Swamp,” meaning he would shake the status quo to its core.  Well, say what you will about the man, after his first year, things are certainly different.  We got CHANGE with a capital “T.”  President Trump pointed out the flaws in our system by exploiting them to his advantage.  He proved to be a master showman, the great manipulator of the facts, the king of misdirection, and a self-promoter of epic proportions.  He took his experience as a reality TV show host on The Apprentice, where his tagline was, “You’re Fired,” and moved it to the White House where he has uttered those words at least 15 times to fire his own cabinet appointees.  Trump’s promise to “Drain the Swamp” seems to have been put on hold when he started hearing banjo music.

Cue the banjo music

It would appear that he isn’t really draining the swamp so much as he is stocking the pond with questionable appointees.  As on The Apprentice, the only way to get ahead in this White House is to “impress the boss.”  Those closest to him know that’s Trump-speak for “Praise and Revere Me.”  Mike Pence has made “getting to first base” with the boss’ derrière a new art form.

Watch/listen to VP Pence pay tribute to his master

So, what has the president accomplished?  When I say accomplished, I mean what has the president actually motivated, planned, and directed in terms of legislation for the greater good of the country.  President Trump takes credit for the burgeoning economy, which is continuing a path started long before he took office.  I give him little, if any credit here.  I don’t give Obama credit for capturing Osama bin Laden either.  Sure, it happened on his watch and he certainly played some role in the outcome but credit lies with the people on the ground that provided the intelligence that made it possible.  When something happens through the hard work of others, and you happen to be standing close by, you don’t get credit for the outcome.

So far, the biggest impact President Trump has made has been the appointment of around 23 conservative federal judges, one of which is now on the Supreme Court.  This will be Trump’s legacy for better or worse, long after he is gone.

The only legislation of note has been tax reform.  It comes in the form of personal income tax changes and corporate tax relief.  President Trump didn’t get involved, beyond not getting in the way, and he spent less than a minute signing it.  He let the un-drained swamp pull together a tax reform bill that provides him with a mountain of cash.  Wealthy Americans, including all members of Congress, will get a tremendous tax break too.  Regular “average income” Americans will initially benefit, but to a much lesser degree.  Corporate tax cuts coupled with a rollback of government regulations should prolong the upward trend in the stock market.  Those invested in the stock market will benefit but 60% of the American population does not participate in that market.

Up To Your Ass in Alligators

 

The American public as a whole will however inherit and eventually pay for the resultant trillions of dollars of debt burden.  You can kick the debt can down the road a bit but each time the can gets bigger.  Eventually you will no longer be able to ignore the giant can in the road impeding your progress.

The deficit-financed tax cut has already had the negative effect of weakening the dollar.  Apparently, foreign financial markets take a dim view of the bill’s $1.5 trillion price tag.  This is in addition to the existing $14.6 trillion debt so the tax cut is a very questionable accomplishment.  With a rise in deficits, we are forced to finance the added debt by borrowing from other countries.  This drives up Treasury yields and lowers the value of the dollar.

Therefore, getting back to President Trump’s accomplishments, what else has he done?  I can’t, in good conscience, include the shrinking of two national monuments to allow more oil exploration.  While North American oil independence is a worthwhile goal, most experts agree this (independence) is not wholly possible.  Our energy needs for the foreseeable future will be a mix of coal, oil, natural gas, hydro-electric, nuclear, biofuels, wind, and solar.  Each of these has its drawbacks and limitations.  The fact that Mexico and Canada are both friendly partners in oil production for all of North America means it would be wise to “not piss them off.”  We need to improve our adaptability in providing for our nation’s energy needs while not destroying the planet in the process.  It’s a delicate balance.

Delicate Balance

Job growth was a campaign promise.  So far, only minor anecdotal changes can be found.  Walmart gave out raises and $1,000 bonuses as a result of the tax cut, but then promptly shut down 63 of its Sam’s Club stores (7,500 layoffs) and laid off an additional 499 people in marketing. The coal mining industry added 500 new jobs in 2017.  Comcast gave out $1,000 bonuses to 100k employees but then laid off over 500 managers.  ATT also gave $1,000 bonuses to 200k employees but also laid off over 4,000 union employees. 

Corporate Tax Cuts to Employees or Shareholders

A recent 30% tariff on solar panels from foreign manufacturers sounds good until you realize that raising costs will reduce the number of installations.  This means cutbacks in thousands of blue-collar installer jobs (estimated losses as high as 23,000 jobs) that will cost the US more than the tariff revenue it produces.  It will also, in all probability, not significantly increase domestic production of solar panels.  Corporations have benefitted from the tax cuts and immediately gave out bonuses to top executives.  Job expansion, if it comes, will have to be in the coming months and years.  Even if we see job expansion and salary increases in the next few years, these will need to be viewed through the lens of the debt burden.

Imported Solar Panels being taxed at 30%

Another Trump “accomplishment” of questionable value, is the decimation of the State Department.  The president is at odds with his appointee, Rex Tillerson and there are currently 45 top-level vacancies in the State Department.  Mr. Tillerson, you will remember, was the former CEO of Exxon Mobile who was the first appointee in modern history to head the State Department who lacked any experience in public office.  The attitude that diplomacy is unimportant has resulted in low morale, recruitment and retention problems, and a decline in experienced leadership.  When asked about the gutting of the State Department in a November 2, 2017, Fox News interview (The Ingraham Angle), Trump stated, “Let me tell you, the one that matters is me.”  “I’m the only one that matters.”  I replayed the clip several times to make sure I got an exact quote.

Watch/listen to President Trump tell you why the State Department is unimportant

Immigration reform is now (January of 2018) the “Breaking News.”  Items included in the immigration basket are DACA (aka “dreamers,” Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals); CHIP (Child Health Insurance Program); The Wall (aka “big beautiful wall,”); border security; chain migration; and sanctuary cities.  That’s a big basket.  This one complex issue has already managed to shut down the government for several days with possibly more shutdowns in our future.  President Trump’s position on immigration, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, “… is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.”  No one knows where Trump stands on the issue, not even the president.  At a recent meeting with both Democrats and Republicans, he changed his mind from accepting a clean DACA bill to wanting one with strings, in a matter of seconds.

Tuesday night (1/30/2018) President Trump will deliver his State of the Union address, or as I call it, the State of the Onion.  You peel away the layers and it just makes you want to cry.  I don’t know which of the two Trumps will show up, tele-prompter Trump or reality-show Trump.  I expect him to boast about the economy, the tax cut, and the nation’s low unemployment rate.  I expect him to parrot (tele-prompter read) some outline position for immigration reform.  I would hope he lays out a comprehensive infrastructure plan but I don’t expect him to have a clue as to how to finance the plan after the $1.5 trillion deficit financed tax cut.

Makes You Want to Cry

I'll wait and see and add more below if my paragraph above is not accurate.  It will hopefully end up more accurate than the printed tickets to the gala event:

My State of the Onion is being upstaged by the State of the UNIOM