A Little Empire History Predicts the Fate of Democracy

Eventually, all governments collapse under their own weight, are replaced by something deemed to be better, or are overturned by someone stronger.  Sometimes it is the result of several of these factors.  With governments, the problem throughout recorded history usually involves human greed and corruption.  No matter how strong the original design is, elements of human nature will erode even the best of them.  In Robert Burns's "To a Mouse" he wrote, “The best-laid schemes o’ mice and men gang aft a-gley.”  This is to say, no matter how carefully planned, things can happen to precipitate the “Under New Management” sign.  American democracy is not immune to such an event.  The rise and fall cycle of major empires seems to follow like night follows the day.

The Persian Empire lasted a mere 220 years.  In 330 BC, Cyrus the Great promoted a peaceful tolerance between the diverse religions and cultures of some of the most advanced civilizations of the time.  This was a good thing because his empire stretched across the three continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa.  His successors, however, had their own ideas and began implementing personal agendas.  Sound familiar?  Cultural aggression created conflict and erosion of Persian rule.  Little kingdoms sprang up.  The weakened Persian Empire was no match for a little Macedonian upstart calling himself Alexander the Great.  Persia’s last emperor, Darius II, was assassinated by his own men who mutinied.  What remains of this great empire we now call Iran.

Alexander the Great

Next up we have the Roman Empire that lasted over 500 years and completely encircled the Mediterranean Sea stretching from England to Egypt.  Having recently watched the HBO series Rome for the second time, I have a renewed appreciation for how politics can collapse a civilization.  The parallels between the demise of the Roman Empire and the erosion of our own ideals are grim reminders.  Political infighting, small civil wars, political corruption, and wealthy families helping themselves at the expense of the poor, created unrest that became fatal.  Rome was eventually divided into the Eastern Empire and the Western Empire.  That further contributed to the dissension as the east prospered and the west declined.  Enter the Barbarians, stage left.  These Barbarians were the Huns, Franks, Visigoths, and Vandals and infiltrated Roman society, politics, and the military.  Rome was eventually sacked in 476 AD as the Barbarians staged a revolt and the “empire without end” (imperium sine fine) was brought to an end.  Political corruption and failed societies are connected and become id quod plerumque accidit (that which generally happens).

The Praecones (Heralds) Were the Early Roman Version of Facebook

Next up we have the Ottoman Empire, famous for its footstools.  It was essentially a religious Islamic Caliphate in direct conflict with the European Christians.  They prospered for 623 years beginning in 1299.  They eventually fought against the Allies in WWI, they lost that war, and control was seeded and split between Britain and France.  This accounts for English and French being second languages in much of the Arab world.

We have all heard of the Mongol hoards and Genghis Khan, but it is hard to realize that he/they conquered more land in 25 years than the Romans did in 400.  In 1206, a warlord named Temujin unified the nomadic Mongol tribes and was given the title Genghis Khan.  While Khan was a great military leader and the Mongols were fierce fighters, they lacked the administrative skills needed to manage such a large territory.  In unity there was strength, but the Mongol Empire was eventually split into four dynasties.  Enter the Black Plague which was spread along the lucrative trade routes created by the Mongols. Khan’s descendants were forced to retreat to Mongolia just 152 years after his ascendance.

Genghis Khan

Now the Big Daddy empire of them all, the British Empire.  In its heyday, it controlled 25% of the world’s landmass and 22% of its people.  For 214 years, the British Empire explored, looted, and colonized around the globe.  Through all of this, they acquired great wealth.  Early in the 20^th century, however, two World Wars dealt the death blow to its economy with a rise in independence movements and the loss of its colonial power.  India gained its independence in 1947 and a 99-year lease in Hong Kong ended 50 years later.  After 200 years, sunset had arrived on the empire where the sun never sets.

The British Empire

Each of these empires had a central state that controlled disparate areas with an array of cultures and religions.  The people and natural resources of these “others” contributed to its wealth and power.  While it is hard to envision the United States as an empire by the traditional definition, it is still subject to the same forces that caused the eventual downfall of its historic predecessors.  Sure, we have Guam and Puerto Rico and a total of 14 US Territories scattered about the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean, but that hardly compares to the likes of India, Canada, or Australia.  We have, however, become the world’s superpower with the wealth and natural resources of many previous “empires.”  We also have many of the same complexities of the military, economic, and cultural factors that can act to destabilize a government from within or to make it easy pickings for its enemies.

We have, as a nation, become a target for destruction by many of the same forces that brought the demise of the more traditional large landmass empires.  At the beginning of the 16^th century, what would become America was a mostly virgin body of land occupying almost 57% of the continent of North America.  The United States is two-thirds the size of Africa, half the size of Russia, but it is over twice the size of the European Union.  In terms of total GDP, we are the richest nation in the world.  By per capita GDP however, we rank 5^th behind Luxembourg, Switzerland, Ireland, and Norway.

How will our great nation fall?  When will it happen?  Is it inevitable?  To answer that last one, history says yes.  History even predicts how much of it will happen.  Internal strife and infighting, a gross disparity between the haves and have-nots, religious and cultural differences, and political corruption will all contribute to our downfall.  We have seen the handwriting on the wall of our Capitol building after the riots of January 6^th.  The broken glass, busted doors, and graffiti tell a tale for those willing to read the signs.  There were also the statues, murals, and historic benches damaged by the residue of pepper sprays, tear gas, and fire extinguishers that speak to the violence of this attempted coup.  Not since the Civil War has our country seen such a deep divide.

How Democracies Cease to Exist

Our current challenges to survival are numerous.  We have climate change that is causing drought, fires, and record high temperatures in the west, flooding of coastal areas, and damaging weather events everywhere.  Our infrastructure is crumbling and, while all agree critical repairs are needed, political shenanigans have prevented any solutions.  We are suffering the crippling effects of a global pandemic exacerbated by political maneuvering aimed at hampering the solution.  Politicians who have no background in science or medicine are pontificating on both.  We have a former president, who wants to be president in the image of his mentor in Russia. He attempted a coup to remain in office and still sows the seeds of dissension among his followers and some right-wing leaders.  Income inequality is on the rise with three individuals, Bezos, Buffett, and Gates, holding half the wealth of our nation.  Many US billionaires now pay a lower effective tax rate than that of the working class.

The age of self-rule and the golden age of democracy was perhaps begun in 1945 at the end of WWII when there were only an estimated 12 democracies worldwide.  By the year 2000 there were around 87.  Then the trend reversed, and right-wing populists took over Poland, Hungary, France, Britain, Italy, Brazil, and the United States.  Behind these populist movements was a demand for simplistic solutions to complex problems.  The hard work of democracy was giving way to the populist offers of those easy solutions that included racism, xenophobia, and a shift to an acceptance of authoritarianism.

Social media provided many with the ability to move within a self-imposed information bubble.  With isolation, they find a salve for their insecurities by absorbing misinformation and lies that reinforce deeply held emotions.  An area once dominated and moderated to good effect by ABC, CBS, and NBC, has now been replaced by Facebook, Twitter, Fox News, and other unmoderated media.  Tribalism brings with it a sense of belonging.  How else can you explain the followers of ludicrous conspiracy theories: tracking microchips in vaccines, wealthy elites running satanic child sex shops out of pizza parlors, and flat earthers where all around you is a soundstage under a dome just as was depicted in the movie the Truman Show.  Who believes this crap?  Apparently, there are a great many such believers.  You need to look no further than the numbers of unvaccinated among us.  Free vaccines are readily available, people around us are getting sick, and some are dying.  Yet they still believe a former president who thinks you can drink bleach and another guy who sells pillows for a living.

Trust Us!

In 1956 Nikita Khrushchev said, "My vas pokhoronim" as he addressed Western ambassadors at the Polish embassy in Moscow.  His, “We will bury you” epithet, bore ominous nuclear innuendo during the Cold War.  Sixty-five years later, his successor, Vladimir Putin seems to be saying, “we will feed you lies and wait for you to bury yourselves.”  China too is biding its time.  In 1960 China’s GDP was only 11% of the US, but by 2019 it was at 67%.

Our democracy is at a tipping point.  Conservative politicians seem to be more willing to accept authoritarian rule to advance a financial advantage over the undeserving masses.  They will convince those masses that they will be better off with a “benevolent authoritarian” than with someone who doesn’t hold with their values.  All will be well as long as they get to pick their favorite grifter.  They will tell the plebian hoards that you can only trust us, not those “other guys.”  Americans need to wake up and understand that what they smell isn’t the roses, it’s the fertilizer.

Time to smell the...