Thursday, November 7, 2019

Ukraine Scandal; Follow the Money

There were so many players in this Ukrainian story I was having difficulty trying to connect the dots.  I like pictures but couldn’t find one that explained things so I could understand the convoluted machinations of the many players.


1.  Vladimir Putin = President of Russia, former Lieutenant Colonel in the KGB and director of FSB (the successor agency to KGB).
2.  Dmytro Firtash = Oil & Gas Oligarch, Russian Organized Crime. (avoiding extradition to U.S.)
3 & 4.  Igor Fruman & Lev Parnash = Ukrainian nationals, working for Dmytro Firtash and employers of Rudy Giuliani ($500k); their objective was to force out Andriy Kobolyev and Maria Yovanovich.  (both are now awaiting trial after attempting to flee the U.S.)
5. Rudy Giuliani = Trump lawyer supported Russian efforts to oust ambassador Yovanovich, no security clearance
6. Andriy Kobolyev = CEO of Naftogaz (Ukraine nationalized gas co.), fighting corruption and he reduced dependency (on Russian natural gas from 93% to 0%.
7. Maria Yovanovich = former American Ambassador to Ukraine, fought corruption, supported Andrei Kubalyev
8.  Donald Trump = U.S. president, lover of all things Russian, claims to be in the hospitality business, no previous job experience.

First, let’s all get on the same page.  I’m not talking about the “phone call” that is being beaten to death in the news and which is the main subject of the impeachment investigation.  I think if I never hear Quid Pro Quo ever again, it will be too soon.  Just call it bribery and be done with it.  Certainly, we all now know that President Trump used mob extortion methods in an attempt to bribe the Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky.  He used our tax dollars, approved by congress, as a bargaining chip to get political dirt on a rival.  He withheld that military aid for almost two months and during that time 13 Ukrainians died on the battlefield fighting the Russians.  Could the aid have made a difference?  Maybe, maybe not, but it just goes to show how serious this all is.  Republicans are trying to downplay the whole matter by now calling it Quid Pro So?  They denied that it happened, then there was no "this for that," and now it's what's the big deal about a little bribery and extortion.  But we are not talking about that little tidbit.

No, I’m talking about the big money angle to this Ukrainian thing.  As in any good story, it is always wise to follow the money.  The big money here is coming from the Russian oil and gas industry, specifically the natural gas (NG) side of things.  You see, Ukraine used to import 93% of all its natural gas from Russia.  These were corrupt times and apparently, a lot of money was changing hands and the former head of Naftogaz was involved.  Naftogaz is the nationalized natural gas corporation in Ukraine.  There were many scandals but, to describe just one, they had fictitious “dead souls” at fake non-existent addresses consuming large quantities of subsidized natural gas which got diverted and sold to real corporations.

Natural gas, NG, has been an ongoing problem with Russia and Ukraine for years.  These disputes have grown beyond simple business disputes into transnational political issues involving political leaders from several countries.  These disputes threaten natural gas supplies in numerous European countries that are dependent on natural gas imports from Russian suppliers, which are transported through Ukraine pipelines.  Russia provides approximately a quarter of the natural gas consumed in the European Union; approximately 80% of those exports travel through pipelines across Ukrainian soil prior to arriving in the EU.


Red lines show NG pipelines across Ukraine that supply western Europe


The new head of Naftogaz came in to fight corruption.  His name is Andriy Kobolyev.  [note: I will spell these foreign names as best I can as I have found several spellings in various publications, I will use the most common.]   Ukraine has its own NG supplies and production but was buying most of its domestic supply from Russia.  Andriy came in to head Naftogaz in 2014 and managed to reduce Ukrainian NG consumption from Russian sources from 93% to 0%.



The flag graphic above has perhaps two honest people represented.  Can you guess who they might be?  If you get it right you may pick up your prize next November.

You can imagine how thrilled Russian oligarch, Dmytro Firtash was when he found that Ukrainian corruption was no longer as profitable as it once was for his NG business.  So Dmytro, in typical Russian mob fashion, hires Fruman and Parnash aka Igor and Lev.  He supplies them with lots of cash.  They hire Rudy Giuliani, yes that Rudy Giuliani and they get to meet Trump.  Trump meets them but later denies ever knowing who they are.  They want, among other things, the ouster of Maria Yovanovich, the Ambassador to Ukraine.  Maria is a career diplomat and staunch fighter of corruption and wholly supports the new Andriy Kubalyev and his anti-corruption policy.  They (Vladimir, Dmytro, Igor, & Lev) also want the ouster of Andriy Kobolyev.

Rudy Giuliani takes $500,000 from Lev Parnas and does his bidding.  He begins to spread disinformation about Maria Y and gets her pulled from her post as a career Ambassador serving in Ukraine.

I managed to create the picture above with the players arranged on their respective flags that show their allegiances.  Note that Rudy is placed on all three flags.  Rudy is all about Rudy and wherever the money is coming from is where he will pledge his allegiance.  Rudy you may remember was the head of a presidential working group on cybersecurity or as he described it on Fox & Friends,  "security for cyber."  Rudy’s knowledge in this area was punctuated in an embarrassing moment in February 2017, when he locked himself out of his iPhone after forgetting his passcode and entering the wrong one at least ten times.  The presidential “security for cyber expert” then had to drive to an Apple Genius Bar in San Francisco to get it fixed.  So, Rudy the adviser to the president on cybersecurity hands over his phone to a stranger in a shopping mall, and it’s Hillary Clinton’s emails that are the security threat?

Trump truly hires the very best.  Rudy is nothing if not comical.  Is the position for court jester open?

Rudy the Court Jester


So, as you can see, Putin, the former Lieutenant Colonel in the KGB and director of FSB (the successor agency to KGB) has a friend in Dmytro Firtash who is connected with the Russian mob who happens to be a middleman for the Russian natural gas giant Gazprom.  He also has a part-time job funneling money into the campaigns of pro-Russia politicians in Ukraine.  He uses Igor and Lev as his bagmen.  These guys hire Rudy G, who also works as a “lawyer” for our president and also works part-time as the head of the State Department in an unofficial back-room kinda way.

Now we hear that when Trump claimed that he didn’t know Lev and Igor, the former got miffed and wants to spill some dirt on the president.  Ours, not his.  What comes out of all of this remains to be seen.  As with all such political intrigue, it always wise to Follow the Money.


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