It's The Economy, Stupid

I just love it when my Republican friends sign their work.  Yes, Stupid*, it is about the economy.  The problem with this typical 4-word slogan is that it oversimplifies a complex issue.  It’s like looking at the gas gauge and telling everyone that the car is ready for your long driving vacation.  We have enough gas, so let’s jump in the car and “Get your motor runnin,' Head out on the highway, Lookin' for adventure, And whatever comes our way.”  You may be Born to Be Wild but that’s the kind of logic that gets you to the "Florida-Georgia Line" only to have one of your four bald tires blow.  That’s the type of thinking that puts you in the middle of a long stretch of “dark desert highway” crossing Death Valley headed for the Hotel California when your failure to change the oil for the last 50,000 miles causes your engine to seize.

Destination, Hotel California

Yes, the economy is important but you can’t just look at the Dow Jones Industrial average and declare, “All is well.”  You can point to the low unemployment numbers all you want, but when people are working two jobs and still qualify for food stamps, things aren’t rosy for everyone.  When farmers can’t sell their crops because someone got into a tariff war with a major trading partner and farmers now must rely on government charity (our tax dollars), the economy may not be in the wonderful shape indicated by stock market numbers.

Donald Trump took an economy left to him by his predecessor that was doing well and managed, or mismanaged depending on your point of view, and borrowed against our children’s future to lower taxes.  For the lower 90% of us, it was a temporary break.  For big business and the wealthy, it was a permanent windfall.  Yes, by running up the national debt to above $120 trillion**, the economy appears to be doing well.

**Note: the published National Debt is $23 trillion;
this chart uses additional factors.

I am reminded of a neighbor friend of mine.  He had a nice house and had recently done some major remodeling.  He put in a pool and added a new room to the back of the house.  He then installed a new driveway next to his house that allowed him a way to park his large new boat in the side yard.  We were invited over for a holiday party those many years ago and we saw that the inside of the house had also benefitted from his apparent new-found wealth.  The room addition now sported a giant flat-screen television.  This was back when such displays cost as much as $10,000 to $15,000.  They had a new kitchen and new tile floors.  As he owned his own business, I assumed that things were going very well.  His economy was very good by all appearances.

It wasn’t but a few years after this holiday party that the "For Sale" sign went up.  When asked, he admitted that he had been caught up in the sub-prime mortgage debacle.  The housing bubble had burst.  Much like the bald tires on our vacation car, my neighbor’s fun ride was at an end.  His mortgage was underwater, the economy had taken a nose-dive, and those mortgage payments had become unmanageable.  He had taken the cash out of his over-valued home spent it perhaps unwisely and ended up being forced to move in with his mother-in-law.

This is an over-simplification of our economy.  I doubt that any of us will be moving back with the in-laws.  I don't think England would take us back and they have their own problems.  The U.S. economy is due for a recession in either 2020 or 2021 depending on which group of economists you believe.  While president Trump will take credit for our current good economic news, I’ll give good odds that you will never hear him take any blame when the downturn eventually comes.  If he has learned to delegate anything, blame has to top the list.

Trump took an economy on the rise and didn’t screw it up.  He did, however, accomplish this partially on the backs of future generations.  Politicians regularly take credit for the highs of our cyclic economy and cast aspersions on others during the lows.  This current presidency is not ALL about the economy.  Trump is managing our national financial vehicle as he has his many business ventures.  He puts the pedal to the metal and has no concern for those bald tires or regular oil changes.  He will take credit for an economy that ends up in the winner’s circle but will deflect and point fingers elsewhere when the crews are called in to haul away the wreck.  The national debt tin-can has been kicked down the road for someone else to deal with.

Are you really better off?

We may never know if Trump is a successful businessman or just an adept conman.  Given his predilection to brag about nearly every accomplishment, I find it of some concern that he has managed to keep his financial health such a secret.  He has certainly done a better job keeping his personal finances more secret than our national security secrets.  Is he in financial debt to some Russian oligarch or Saudi prince, perhaps both?  His unilateral deference to all things Russian or Saudi gives rise to speculation.  We would be right to suspect that there are financial ties and concerns of which we should be wary.  Trump’s perpetual-audit excuse is beginning to wear thin when it comes to his tax returns.

James Carville’s, “It’s the economy, stupid,” will be heard loud and clear this 2020 presidential election.  I can only hope that voters will take a long hard look at that economy.  While your taxes may have gone down a bit, are you really better off than you were four years ago?  Since the sub-prime mortgage-related crash of 2008, the overwhelming majority of new jobs earn less than $50,000 a year and many don’t pay much above minimum wage.  Many average Americans  could be considered “working poor.”

Bocce ball court, a true level playing field

The poverty threshold for a family of four is $25,000.  If that family wants to own a car, watch cable TV, have decent healthcare, send their two children through college, own a home, take vacations, etc., they must earn considerably more.  A minimum wage job at $7.25 hr brings in $15,000; but only if you never get sick, never take a vacation, and work 52 weeks a year.  I think most Democrats and true and honest Republicans don’t believe in a redistribution of wealth but would fully endorse a level playing field.  If leveling that playing field brings a bit of temporary pain to the wealthy, it may be unavoidable.  The playing field is not level if a good education is relegated to the wealthy with connections.  The playing field is not level if not all Americans are afforded some level of quality healthcare as a birthright.  The playing field is not level if corporations can make obscene profit margins while paying wages that require full-time employees to go on public assistance in order to get proper nutrition and adequate shelter.

The Gilded Age, Mark Twain, and Charles Dudley Warner
Telling a tale of graft, materialism, and corruption in public life.

Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner wrote “The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today” in 1873, referring to the Reconstruction period after 1860.  The reference was of a glittery surface and an underbelly of corruption, greed, unrestrained capitalism, and conspicuous consumption.  Welcome to the second Gilded Age, Gilded Age 2.0 if you will, where the working poor ride buses or walk to work and can barely afford basic necessities, the middle class is dwindling and treading water financially, and the top 1% enjoys the fruits of the labors of others to whom they refuse to pay a living wage.  Donald Trump, after signing his massive tax cut told his wealthy friends at a gathering at Mar-a-Lago, “You all just got a lot richer.”

Alva Vanderbilt, 1883

Tenement life in 1883

We have always been a class society.  The middle-class flies coach, the upper-class flies first class, and the uber-rich cruise in private jets.  In the recent past, however, mobility between classes was at least possible and the American Dream of homeownership was more than just a dream.  Remember to vote for the American Dream in 2020, to avoid the American Nightmare in 2021.


* Note:  Apologies to my Republican friends, I wasn't calling you "stupid."  But if you think this president is above the law, has done nothing against our Constitution, has meaningfully cooperated with the House investigations as is his duty under the Constitution, has helped our environment so that it may be enjoyed by future generations, and has been fiscally conservative, you may want to re-think your choice of grape-flavored beverages.