What passes for “news” these days, seems to be inferences drawn from late-night tweets and off-the-cuff remarks in noisy environments from the self-proclaimed Leader of the Free World, the Grand American Poobah, the Lost but Confident Human GPS, the Grand High Exalted Mystic Ruler of the Loyal Order of Raccoons, the Director of Bad Ideas, the Minister of Mischief & Mayhem, the Master of the 24-hour Nap, the Czar of Grift, and Supreme Overlord of the Cult of MAGA, who goes by the name of Donald John Trump.
During one such recent proclamation in the twelfth week of our two week war with Iran, our fearless leader said that we were “very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE.” This is at least the third time (who’s counting?) he has made such an announcement, discounting of course the previous end and total ceasefire after the total destruction of the entire Iranian nuclear program in June of 2025. It seems that this latest peace agreement is little more than a “memorandum of understanding” meaning we have the outline of what might be included in a draft of an eventual peace agreement. If all goes well, the stars align, and the creek don’t rise, the war will end and Iran might open the Strait of Hormuz to traffic. The End.
For those with short-term memory loss, like our president, I will recount that, had not the president shredded the Obama JCPOA, Iran’s nuclear program would have remained restricted and monitored by international inspectors, the Strait of Hormuz would still be open, gas prices would be 50% lower, food prices would be lower, and airline travel costs would be lower.
If the 2015 Obama-era agreement remained intact, what would be different today? I asked AI this question and got...
• Nuclear & Ballistic Restrictions: Iran's uranium enrichment would have remained strictly capped at \(3.67\%\) purity, and its breakout time to a nuclear weapon would be measured in months or over a year, rather than the rapid weeks or near-zero window seen prior to the recent conflict.
• Sanctions & Oil Trade: Iran's economy would not have been crippled by the intense "maximum pressure" or subsequent naval blockades. Iranian oil would be legally flowing to global markets, and they would have billions of dollars in formerly frozen assets actively integrated into their economy.
• International Diplomacy: Instead of mediating through neutral parties like Pakistan to secure temporary ceasefires, Western powers (such as the UK, France, and Germany) and the US would still be formally utilizing the Joint Commission framework defined by the deal to address compliance issues.
• Middle Eastern Relations: Regional proxies and flashpoints would likely not have escalated into a full-blown war, and shipping through the Persian Gulf would be unhindered by military blockades or mine-clearing operations.
Back to HI (human intelligence) don't laugh.
Yes, Trump 1.0 tore up the JCPOA and had no replacement. Joe Biden unsuccessfully tried to get it reinstated, but Iran and others balked. It’s no fun wasting your time with a written agreement with the U.S. and find it cancelled every time America has a new president. Trump 2.0 didn’t bother with another agreement and just joined Israel (without Congressional approval calling it an emergency), and started a war with Iran. Now Americans and the rest of the world are suffering because Donald Trump once again acted without thinking things through. Americans and the world now must suffer a mistake we made on November 5, 2024.
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